Should the Blue Jays Re-Sign Bautista or Encarnacion?

In a perfect world, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion both sign long-term contracts, win a World Series title, retire as Blue Jays, and have their names entered into the Level of Excellence.

But this is not a perfect world for the Blue Jays. It’s very likely that one or perhaps even both of Bautista and Encarnacion walk away as free agents at season’s end.

These guys helped legitimize the Blue Jays franchise and both players have been instrumental in the Jays’ turnaround. And in many ways, Jose Bautista’s and Edwin Encarnacion’s long and winding journey with the Blue Jays has mirrored the path the team itself has taken over the past five years.

Losing one or potentially both of them would undoubtedly be a huge blow to the Toronto Blue Jays. But it’s wise to prepare for the likelihood that Jose and Edwin won’t be back.

Insiders like Ken Rosenthal aren’t convinced the Jays have what it takes to keep both players on board. Rosenthal said this a few weeks ago on Sportsnet 590 The Fan:

“I just know that coming from Cleveland where they (Shapiro/Atkins) had to be so disciplined because of the financial restrictions they were always under, they know that investments in older players are generally speaking, not wise. That’s why I’m not convinced either of those guys (Bautista/Encarnacion) is going to be back.”

That seems to be the sentiment shared among many surrounding the Blue Jays; that it would be great to have Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion re-sign with the team, but the odds of that happening are very slim.

It’s difficult to imagine a Blue Jays lineup without either of those names penciled in, but the club will eventually have to experience life after Bautista and Encarnacion.

Rather than having two giant holes in the lineup, the Blue Jays might be better off focusing their efforts on retaining the services of one of those guys. So if the Jays can only bring back one of Bautista or Encarnacion, which should they target?

 

The Case for Bringing Back Joey Bats

Jose Bautista’s heroics in Game 5 of the ALDS alone should’ve been enough to trigger an automatic contract extension. Add in his contributions from Game 6 of the ALCS, and Bautista’s lore in Blue Jays history grew even further.

Unfortunately, contracts aren’t merited on good will, otherwise Bautista would’ve been locked up a long time ago. Here’s a reality the Blue Jays are facing; Joey Bats is turning 36 years old this year, he had a shoulder injury last season, and all those years of playing on artificial turf may be catching up to him.

Bautista certainly can still hit, but his ability to play the field is steadily declining. The fact that he can at least hold down an outfield position bodes well, and his cannon of an arm may make up for his lack of range in the outfield.

Aside from maybe Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista has been one of the most consistent Blue Jays hitters the past five years. While Edwin Encarnacion is prone to hot and cold streaks, Bautista is often at an even keel throughout the season.

Bautista’s pitch recognition is among the best in the league; his 16.2% walk rate since 2011 is second best in MLB. Even if Jose’s power diminishes over the next few years, OBP and pitch recognition really doesn’t really seem to slump all that much.

Although Jose Bautista currently projects as a right fielder, one would hope that in the next few years, the Blue Jays could even transition him over to first base. No knock on Edwin, but I can’t imagine Jose being much worse than Encarnacion at first base.

At the bare minimum, Jose would need to be merely capable at first base to make a contract extension worthwhile for the Blue Jays. And even if Bautista transitions into a full-time DH in the latter part of the deal, his production up front would surely offset the back-end of the deal.

 

The Case for Extending Encarnacion

If re-signing Jose Bautista is going with your heart, re-signing Edwin Encarnacion might be going with your head. Of the two sluggers, Edwin is arguably the more logical choice to bring back. On paper, Encarnacion may favour better than Bautista down the road.

Encarnacion is nearly three years younger than Bautista, and in a game that sees stars in their mid-30’s fall off a cliff very quickly, Edwin could be the safer bet of the two players.

Edwin Encarnacion is no defensive wizard at first base, but at this point in his career, Encarnacion is about one season away from becoming a full-time DH anyway. With only 59 games in the field last season, Encarnacion offers very little in respect to defensive contributions.

With that in mind, that puts the Blue Jays in an advantageous position; if any prospective teams were to inquire on Encarnacion, it would only be in a DH capacity anyway. Thus, the Blue Jays could re-sign Edwin Encarnacion to a designated hitter-type contract for a shorter term, whereas Jose Bautista is still adamant he can play the field and would likely command more years.

Edwin also seems more open to the idea of becoming a full-time DH, while Jose would invariably need to be eased into that position.

And although he missed time during the 2014 season, Edwin Encarnacion has posted incredible numbers the past four consecutive seasons. His strike and walk rates have stabilized and it’s basically safe to assume he’ll hit 30 home runs and collect 100 RBI’s any given season.

When it comes to Edwin, it always comes back to that three year age gap between him and Jose. It might not seem like much, but there’s a very steep curve when it comes to signing players past their mid-thirties, and that alone could deter the Jays away from Bautista and towards Encarnacion.

 

The Verdict? Bring Back Bautista

This is one I’ve gone back and forth on numerous times, so I don’t envy the Blue Jays when they have to make this decision. But if they can only choose one of Bautista and Encarnacion, my vote is for Joey Bats.

Ignore the sentimental stuff for a second; Jose was a career journeyman up until the age of 28 and didn’t play his first full season in the big leagues until age 29. Much like Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista is a late bloomer and has not showed any signs of slowing down since 2010.

Bautista’s plate recognition is among the best in the league and that’s an attribute that projects to serve him well into his late 30’s. Jose may not be the elite power hitter late in his career, but at the very least he should still be an on-base machine.

And even though it might only be of marginal value, at least Jose Bautista can provide some value in the field; whether that’s in right field or eventually at first base.

Then let’s circle back to the sentimental value of re-signing Jose Bautista over Edwin Encarnacion. I can probably imagine the team without Encarnacion in a Blue Jays uniform next year; I can’t imagine it without Bautista.

He is a player that deserves to end his career (or at the very least, enjoy the latter years) in Toronto with the organization that finally gave him the opportunity to blossom into a superstar. Jose Bautista owes a lot to the Blue Jays, and in turn the Blue Jays owe a lot to him.

That doesn’t mean Jose Bautista can ask for whatever he wants; but good will has earned him a sizable raise and at least a three-year contract from the Blue Jays (if not four).

The easy thing for the Blue Jays to do at season’s end would be to let Jose and Edwin walk and let another team take over their next big contracts. But this is the lesson that was illustrated during Jose Bautista’s initial contract extension; at some point, you have to be willing to bet on yourself.

It’s safer to let Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion walk as free agents, but World Series teams aren’t built on “safe” moves. They’re built on bold, unpredictable and sometimes irrational moves.

The Blue Jays took a big gamble in 2011 by inking Bautista to a five-year contract extension, but it miraculously paid off and Jose was far more valuable to the Jays than anybody could’ve ever imagined.

Now the time has come for the Blue Jays to make the decision to once again; will they double down on Jose Bautista?

Image via Getty Images Sport/Tom Szczerbowski