Handicapping the Blue Jays’ Playoff Odds Down the Stretch

One year ago, the Toronto Blue Jays were in unfamiliar territory. Holding onto a 1.5 game division lead, the Blue Jays eventually fought off the New York Yankees as the Jays secured their first AL East division title and playoff berth in 22 years.

This year, it’s a much different story. Playing meaningful games in September is merely second nature to the Blue Jays of 2016. While the Jays hold a two game lead over their next-closest rival, 2016 doesn’t yet feel like the nail-biter of a schedule like last year.

I wouldn’t necessarily say many are much more comfortable with this year’s squad, but they’re certainly a little less nervous about the Blue Jays this year than fans were last year.


And for good reason; the Toronto Blue Jays own the fifth best record in all of baseball and the second best record in the American League. With 29 games remaining on the schedule, fans are feeling pretty good about the Blue Jays’ playoff odds.


Baseball Prospectus: 94.2% Playoff Odds

To me, the Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds Report is the go-to in this case. One of the best features is the 1-day and 7-day delta, which tells you how far things can swing for a team over the course of one single game.

Over here, Baseball Prospectus gives the Blue Jays 94.2% odds, 60.9% odds to take the AL East, and 11.3% chance to win it all.


Five Thirty Eight: 91% Playoff Odds

As it stands, FiveThirtyEight has the Blue Jays finishing the season with a 92-70 record, and is handicapping them with a 90% chance to make the playoffs, 60% chance to win the AL East and 12% chance to win the World Series.

Interestingly enough, these MLB playoff predictions give the Toronto Blue Jays the best odds to win the World Series (for a team that isn’t named the Chicago Cubs)


FanGraphs: 91.8% Playoff Odds



FanGraphs Playoff Odds page is one place I recall visiting quite frequently last August and September in anticipation of watching the Blue Jays’ playoff chances creep higher and higher.

The results are similar to that of Baseball Prospectus, with FanGraphs showing a 94.2% chance of making the playoffs, 59.6% chance to win the division, and 11.7% chance to win the World Series.


Bodog: 10/11 Favourites to Win the AL East

Bodog has the Blue Jays at 15/2 odds to win the World Series, 4/1 odds to take the American League Championship, and 10/11 favourites to win the American League East.

Ian Hunter

Ian has been writing about the Toronto Blue Jays since 2007. He enjoyed the tail-end of the Roy Halladay era and vividly remembers the Alex Rodriguez "mine" incident. He'll also retell the story of Game 5 of the 2015 ALDS to his kids for the next 20 years.

One thought on “Handicapping the Blue Jays’ Playoff Odds Down the Stretch

  • September 2, 2016 at 9:40 am

    Nice job putting this information together.


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