Is It Time to Start Worrying About Marcus Stroman?

After a breakout campaign in 2014 and an injury-shortened season in 2015, 2016 was supposed to be the year for Marcus Stroman.

He was supposed to take the baton from David Price and become the new ace of the Toronto Blue Jays. One third of the way through the 2016 season, things haven’t unfolded quite as expected.

There was hope that Marcus Stroman was going to pick up right where he left off after his stellar September and postseason run. Through his first few starts of the 2016 campaign, that’s exactly what Stroman did; but ever since, he’s taken a bit of a step backwards.

In three of his past four starts, Marcus Stroman surrendered six or more earned runs. Stroman also hasn’t escaped the sixth inning in three of his last four games, and his ERA is quickly approaching the 5.00 mark.

This all has many wondering (myself included) whether it’s time to start worrying about Marcus Stroman.

To give a fair and balanced approach, let’s present both sides here. First, the counterargument; Marcus Stroman is still only 25 years old. This is really only the second “rough patch” of his career, and he only has 36 career starts under his belt.

As a reborn ground ball pitcher, Stroman is going to be hit hard from time to time. Some of those ground balls will be elevated into line drives. It just so happens he’s been tagged pretty badly in about 5 of his 12 starts this season. Two of those games were also against the most potent offense in baseball: the Red Sox.

But here’s why there may be some cause for concern with Marcus Stroman. My fear is that the book is out on him and word around the league has spread on his repertoire. The league has adjusted to Stroman, but Stroman hasn’t made the subsequent adjustment quite yet.

As mentioned, when the league hits Marcus Stroman, they tend to get him pretty good. In terms of exit velocity, Stroman has been above league average for most of the 2016 season. Judging by this chart from Baseball Savant, the divide is only getting wider.

This chart isn’t indicative of a problem per se, but nothing good can happen as the miles per hour on Stroman’s exit velocity continues to escalate.

I also worry because Stroman used to mow down hitters in the past. In late 2014 and in September and October 2015, he was nearly unhittable. Lately when I watch a Stroman start, he’s turning around far too often to watch hits land in the outfield.

By no means am I suggesting that Stroman is “done” or his career is in jeopardy, but his recent string of starts is somewhat of a disturbing trend.

As far as outcomes go, Marcus Stroman is inducing a very similar amount of ground balls per game, about 13 or 59.8%. It’s not as though the defense is allowing seeing-eye singles to escape the infield or defense has been costing Stroman outs and runs.

If anything, the only aspect which has cost Stroman some runs is the inherited runners aspect. I can think of two occasions where the bullpen allowed inherited runners to score on Marcus Stroman’s line, but those baserunners were in fact Stroman’s responsibility. It just so happened the bullpen hasn’t picked him up on a few occasions.

There isn’t one obvious cause for Stroman’s drop-off, which has many baffled as to why he’s run into so much trouble this past month. Opponents are suddenly striking the ball very hard off Marcus Stroman, which leads me to believe their advanced scouting reports have picked up on something.

Stroman has certainly experienced his fair share of struggles over his career, and this short stretch is merely a small footnote in the laundry list of things Marcus has overcome.

In its current state, this is nothing to be overly concerned about with Marcus Stroman, but if it’s something that persists as the season progresses, these concerns may be warranted.

Image via Getty Images Sport/Michael Ivins/Boston Red Sox