The Curious Case of Scott Richmond

It’s something that we’ve become all too accustomed with this year with Scott Richmond. For whatever reason, Scotty often runs into trouble early in the game. Today’s start was another prime example of that – he was roughed up early in the game for five runs but managed to settle down for the remainder of his start.

For weeks, I’ve struggled to find out why Richmond has so much trouble within the first few innings of his starts. While I don’t have an explanation for why it happens, the truth remains that Scott Richmond’s ERA is much higher through the first three innings of his starts than from the fourth inning onward.


Game ProgessERATotal Earned Runs
First 3 Innings6.2739
4th Inning Onward3.8825

During the first three innings of Richmond’s starts, his ERA is 6.27. But once he settles down, his ERA from the fourth inning and onward drops down to 3.88. I don’t know whether it’s early-inning jitters or maybe it could be because Scott doesn’t really get warmed up for a few innings.

The only other explanation I can provide is that maybe Richmond’s fastball picks up velocity in later innings or his slider breaks more as the game progresses.

Until I can find more concrete evidence, the Curious Case of Scott Richmond will remain unsolved.

Ian has been writing about the Toronto Blue Jays since 2007. He enjoyed the tail-end of the Roy Halladay era and vividly remembers the Alex Rodriguez "mine" incident. He'll also retell the story of Game 5 of the 2015 ALDS to his kids for the next 20 years.



  1. Mattt

    September 8, 2009 - 6:26 pm

    In yesterdays game it looked more like he was having trouble with location on all of his pitches. He'd get into deep counts and then either issue a walk, or serve up a fastball ripe for hitting…

  2. eyebleaf

    September 8, 2009 - 6:54 pm

    Looks like he's a reliever; I think that's where he'll be next year, right?

  3. Ian H.

    September 8, 2009 - 9:43 pm

    Mattt, I missed most of Scott's start but I don't doubt that's what happened. Getting behind in the count is always a recipe for disaster.

    eyebleaf, it's hard to say. I think he deserves a fair shot at the fifth starting spot next year. If not that, definitely a spot in the 'pen.

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