Just How Good Will Marcus Stroman be in 2015?

It’s still remarkably early in his career, but it really seems like Marcus Stroman is destined for great things. Whether that’s in the immediate future or a little further down the road remains to be seen, but what can’t be denied is Stroman’s incredible ace-worthy potential.

Expectations will certainly be high for the Toronto Blue Jays’ most promising young pitcher as he enters his sophomore campaign with the club.

Interestingly enough, it’s not just those within the immediate vicinity of the Blue Jays organization who are also enamoured with Marcus Stroman; it turns out he’s turning a lot of heads of scouts and executives from around the league.


With the Toronto Blue Jays hoping to contend in 2015, they’ll be heavily relying upon contributions from their stable of promising young pitchers like Marcus Stroman. But just how good will he be this coming season?

It’s difficult to say this early, but in order to venture a guess, one must rely on projections to get a benchmark for what to expect.

Rotochamp has kindly compiled all of Marcus Stroman’s projections for the 2015 season, and FanGraphs just included 2015 ZIPS projections last week. Marcus Stroman’s projections are quite impressive to say the least; dare I even say on the verge of ace-like?

Projector IP W L ERA WHIP K BB
ZIPS 174 N/A N/A 3.61 N/A 150 38
Composite 175 12 8 3.55 1.28 152 47
RotoChamp 175 13 7 3.29 1.21 151 42
Steamer 192 13 10 3.76 1.24 168 53
CAIRO 132 8 6 3.63 1.4 114 37
Steamer600 200 14 10 3.76 1.24 176 56

I think the Blue Jays would be more than happy to receive results like that from Marcus Stroman in 2015, but I almost think those projections might be selling Stroman a little short.

While a great deal of calculations go into projections, there’re still a bit of an inexact science. Previous statistics, park factors and age all come into play, while things like luck and the complete randomness of baseball do not.

FanGraphs describes projections as “an estimate of a player’s current, underlying true talent level”, and admittedly it’s difficult for them to predict any sort of outlier season or breakout campaign.

But all indications point towards 2015 being one for Marcus Stroman.

Stoeten alluded to it in his latest at the National Post, but many of Toronto’s young starters could easily surpass those modest projections; namely Marcus Stroman.

Indications are that he’s bound for great things. There have been umpteen articles written about him this offseason, perhaps the two most salivating come from FanGraphs; how Stroman discovered Roy Halladay’s sinker, and his drool-worthy pitch comparisons.


If he continues to trend in the same direction and utilizes the new weapons in his arsenal with great effectiveness, Marcus Stroman may have only scratched the surface of his abilities.

Overall, ZIPS has Marcus Stroman pegged to be around a 3 WAR player this year, which last year would’ve qualified as Top 20 for starting pitchers in the American League. But expectations are that Stroman can perform much, much better than that.

Image via Jim McIsaac/Getty Images Sport

Ian Hunter

Ian has been writing about the Toronto Blue Jays since 2007. He enjoyed the tail-end of the Roy Halladay era and vividly remembers the Alex Rodriguez "mine" incident. He'll also retell the story of Game 5 of the 2015 ALDS to his kids for the next 20 years.

One thought on “Just How Good Will Marcus Stroman be in 2015?

  • March 1, 2015 at 6:52 pm

    I wonder if the " Martin " factor has been taken into account. If you look at what Martin has done to Pittsburg's pitching staff in the two years he was there it is astounding. He improved the number of every pitcher on their staff. Pittsburg's overall numbers went from (era, era+,fip) 3.86-97-3.93 in 2012 to 3.26-109-3.42 in 2013. I am expecting huge increases in Stroman and Hutcheson's numbers, especially after the improvements they made at the end of last year. Should be an interesting year .

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