Will Melky Cabrera Re-Sign with the Blue Jays?

The Toronto Blue Jays have many questions to answer this offseason, but one which will likely go a long way to predicating their success in 2015 is whether they can re-sign Melky Cabrera.

Before he can officially claim free agency in earlier November, the burning question in Blue Jays Land will be if Alex Anthopoulos can get Cabrera to sign on the dotted line. The Blue Jays will at the very least extend a qualifying offer, but anything beyond that is debatable.

Last week, Alex Anthopoulos confirmed that Melky’s camp and the Blue Jays had begun preliminary talks and exchanged a few figures, but it sounded like no real progress had been made in the way of a new deal.

As any top-tier free agent would, Melky is surely weighing his options and waiting to see which suitors will line up for his services beginning next season. And considering the free agent outfielder market looks fairly thin, Cabrera is in line for a big payday.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts that Melky Cabrera will fetch a five-year/$66.25 million dollar contact, and while that projection may be on the high side, it’s not overly ridiculous for a guy coming off a stellar .301/.351/.458 season with 16 home runs.

Melky has stated that he enjoys playing in Toronto, and while that might seem like a bargaining chip for the Blue Jays, it really isn’t. Judging by the most recent contracts signed by outfielders, there’s a very slim chance Cabrera signs a “hometown discount” with the Blue Jays.

I’ll fully admit, attracting free agents to come play north of the border in Toronto is a challenge in itself. So the fact that Melky likes playing for the Blue Jays is a win for the organization, but that’s about the only advantage they have in negotiations.

Melky Cabrera may also enjoy the atmosphere, namely playing with his countrymates Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, but would he really turn down millions of dollars to play with his buddies?

Another stumbling block for the Blue Jays is the dreaded “five year policy”; the front office has remained adamant about their limit on five year contracts, and while they’re attempting to be fiscally responsible, it immediately prices them out.

What’s preventing the Yankees or Red Sox from coming in and offering Melky Cabrera a six-year contact? That would immediately take the Blue Jays out of the running simply because of their arbitrary five-year policy.

If money were not an issue or if this were perhaps the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers organizations, Melky would’ve been re-signed by now. But alas, this is the Toronto Blue Jays; the team that seemingly has put a halt on any further spending.

With many contracts coming off the book this year, a few options likely to be declined, and the possibility of some big salaries being traded away, surely you’d think Alex Anthopoulos could muster up $13-14 million per annum to keep Melky Cabrera around.

Just my guess here, but I don’t think it’s so much about the dollars as it is the duration of the contract for Melky Cabrera.

After being suspended for PED’s and then suffering from a spinal tumour last year, Melky put forth a great effort this year and rebuilt a tremendous amount of value entering free agency. So for a player who’s only 30 and has yet to sign his first big contract extension, one can’t imagine Melky signing a short term deal.

What it all comes down to is the Blue Jays need Melky more than Melky needs the Blue Jays. And there is virtually no one on the team or in the farm system who could replace his production.

Which emphasizes just how crucial it is for Alex Anthopoulos to ink Melky Cabrera to a contract extension this offseason. The Blue Jays are worse without him, and the odds of finding a replacement to match that kind of production at a lower price point is next to impossible.

The Toronto Blue Jays are not an organization right now that can let free agents walk and plug in a bright young star from the farm system, a la the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Blue Jays were privy to what happened after Melky was knocked out for the season in early September. Without his consistency in the lineup, the Blue Jays were forced to move everyone up in the lineup, which emphasized the black hole at the bottom of the order.

Not that one player on a Major League roster determines whether or not a team will success, but in many ways the Blue Jays success next season hinges on bringing back Melky for the foreseeable future.

Yes, Alex Anthopoulos somewhat did Melky a favour by signing him to two-year contract back in 2012 when most teams only wanted to sign a one-year deal, but Alex hardly did it out of the good of his heart. It was to get value; it was a business move.

Will the Blue Jays re-sign Melky Cabrera? They’ll at least try to, but ultimately the allure of playing for a contending team or the security of a fat contract from another club will likely sway him to sign elsewhere.

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